Watch Guide: The first college football playoff rankings

Hey y’all,

Welcome to CFBuds! I’m Bud Elliott, and this is the new home for my college football email list. I typically publish multiple times per week, sharing insights on all things college football, including betting, data, trends in the sport, schemes, and a bit of sports business.

If you’re an existing subscriber, expect more of the same—but likely with a bit more frequency, as this platform is better suited for my needs. If you’re new, welcome aboard!

I am still playing with formatting so if you have anything you want to see, please let me know,

1. The first college football playoff rankings come out tonight. What messages will the committee be looking to send?
   
   I am actually on tonight at 7:30 on the Cover 3 YT channel reacting live. But here are a few questions I have.
   

2. What will the committee do with Indiana?
   
   Indiana has been dominating its opponents, but it hasn’t secured a single win over a team currently considered a lock for a bowl game. Statistically, Indiana shows all the signs of a strong team, as great teams tend to routinely overpower average to poor opponents.

   However, there are limits to this signal. Some teams, like Ole Miss or occasionally Tennessee, continue to run up the score and press their advantage, while others, leading by a similar margin, ease off and close out the game without further escalation. The question is: how much does the committee value Indiana's dominance given the level of competition? That’s something I’ll be watching for this evening.

3. Who will they rank down-ballot to justify moves they want to make in the future?
   
   Where is Clemson? Where is Vanderbilt? Where is Louisville? How about South Carolina? And Illinois? None of these teams will be top-15, but will they crack the top-25?
   
   A lot of justifications for 1-12 will be made on the backs of what is done 13-25, per usual.
   
   I’ll really be watching for Louisville. Do the Cards get respect for three close losses in good performances against Notre Dame, Miami, and SMU, plus a big win at Clemson?

4. What does the committee think of SMU? 

   
   Remember that SMU lost to BYU when its QB situation was still in flux. It has two very nice wins though, over Louisville and Pitt, and several other dominant wins. Will the committee have SMU high enough to suggest that it can make it in as an 11-2 at-large, should it lose to Miami in the ACCG?

5. Georgia or Ohio State?
   

   This is a fascinating question for me. Ohio State clearly has the better loss — falling to the No. 1 Oregon team in Eugene, but Georgia probably has the better win in dominating Texas in Austin.

Quick hitters from the desk of Bud

I figure I will share notes and things I find that don’t rise to the level of making any of the various shows I am on.

1. Florida head coach Billy Napier stated that quarterback DJ Lagway hasn't been ruled out for the upcoming game against Texas, leaving a glimmer of hope for his availability. However, given that Lagway was carted off with what appeared to be a hamstring injury, it’s hard to believe he’d be game-ready just a week later. Such injuries typically require longer recovery, making his potential return seem overly optimistic. Maybe he will be back for LSU.

2. Miami head coach Mario Cristobal described defensive back Jadius Richards' injury as "significant," impacting a secondary already dealing with depth concerns. While this injury might not be as noticeable in Miami’s remaining ACC games, it could become critical if the Hurricanes reach the playoffs, where tougher opponents will test their defensive resilience. Richards' absence raises the pressure on Miami's backups to step up when it matters most.

3. Oregon receiver Tez Johnson, who has been a crucial playmaker this season, won’t require surgery for his recent injury, a relief for the Ducks. Johnson has racked up 640 yards and 5 touchdowns this year, showcasing his deep-threat ability and agility. As Oregon eyes a deep playoff run, getting Johnson back in the lineup will be pivotal, as his presence stretches defenses and adds another layer to the Ducks’ explosive offense.

4. TCU might be really shorthanded on defense against Oklahoma State at defensive tackle. This matters to me a bit because TCU already lost one defensive lineman for the year, and another elite one to the transfer portal.

5. A small play I made tonight: Central Michigan 1Q Total Under 10 +110. If my read of the wind is correct, it should be harsher in the first quarter than the rest of the game.

6. Sark said that Texas WR Isaiah Bond looked “pretty good” in practice. This probably doesn’t matter against Florida all that much, but for my money Bond is the best receiver for Texas and one of the best in the country.